Top technology trends of the future unveiled

By Dan Hebert, PE, Senior Technical Editor

EVERY MACHINE builder would like to know what its machine control, instrumentation and electrical systems will be like in five or 10 years. The more we can plan for the inevitable changes that automation technology will bring, the better we can benefit from it when it evolves into practical machine control functionality.

One way to envision the future is to look at specific trends in automation hardware and software, but it might be better to first look at more general trends that will inevitably drive the evolution of machine automation.

THE MACHINE OF THE FUTURE WILL HAVE: Smart Fiberoptic Sensors Distributed Controls Closed Loop Control Remote Access Wireless Mesh Network Connectivity to Corporate Computing Systems Standard Off-the-Shelf Hardware More Automation, Less Manual Operator Interaction Continuous Automation System Retrofits Quick Connectors to Link Machine Modules Extensive Use of Machine Vision

If we’re not careful, we can lose track of the realities of automation’s relationship to industrial machines. Those of us who are exposed to the latest and slickest of the automation toys coming to market easily can overhype the urgency by which a machine builder must toss out his current controls and embrace the latest. How he supports it, and how his customers evolve with it, are questions brushed aside as obstructionist excuses.

We know better than that. Machine builders constantly balance the need for new automation to improve machine performance, safety and reliability with those support and customer reaction issues. There are many machines operating on “older” technology, and they’re not doing badly. They’ll move to newer technology on their terms, not a vendor’s marketing urgings.

This article aims to highlight emerging technologies in a way that will confirm to many machine builders that they have a good handle on emerging trends. For others, it provides a needed “heads up” that tells them it’s time to start thinking about the effects of these trends on future designs.

Easy as One, Two, Three
Automation, electromechanical components and labor are the three elements needed to operate a machine. If we look at the relative advances in these areas, we can discern trends that will shape the future of machine automation.

One general trend--apparent for decades and always gaining strength--is the rapid advance of automation, instrumentation, and electrical components and systems. These components and systems improve constantly and rapidly in their price/performance ratio, size and reliability. The microwave oven-sized PLCs of not-too-long ago quickly gave way to today’s less-costly PLC with similar capability that fits in the palm of your hand.

These advancements are especially striking when compared to the lack of advancement in electromechanical components and labor.

Electromechanical components sometimes do advance, as with improvements in motors and linear motion systems, and in the reliability and precision of linear guides and ballscrews. But these components often regress in price vs. performance as exemplified by recent huge increases in the price of raw materials such as steel.

When electromechanical components improve, these changes usually are slow and gradual, and cannot match the quantum leaps that we often see in automation systems performance.

What about labor--that final key component needed to build and operate machines? Labor costs certainly are increasing worldwide. Even China now reports a shortage of skilled labor and skyrocketing wages.

Even when wages are stagnant, as in much of the developed world, labor cost continues its inexorable march upward from increases in non-wage costs such as health care, worker’s comp and pensions.

It seems certain that both labor and electromechanical components will continue to increase in cost, especially as compared to automation systems. In most cases, an increased use of one of these elements will decrease the need for one or both of the others. It follows that the one factor decreasing in cost relative to the other two will see more use. In one way or another, the future of machine automation will be determined by the relentless, basic logic of this equation.

A Basic Truth: Automation Replaces Labor
For many years manufacturing output in the U.S. has been increasing at about 5% per year. Demand for manufactured goods has been growing 3% each year. If inventory levels remain basically stable, then this argues that manufacturing employment has been decreasing by 2% per year. Manufacturing productivity growth perhaps is the key factor in recent U.S. economic success, especially as compared to other first world nations.

FIGURE 1: LABOR SAVER

This necking machine adds top and bottom trim to beverage cans. Belvac Production Machinery discovered substantial labor cost savings by using remote diagnostics to eliminate much travel to customer sites. Source: Belvac

One machine automation professional after another can cite an example of how automation replaces labor. “Remote dial-in capabilities keep the OEM in touch with the machinery and allow diagnostics and changes to be performed remotely,” says Rodney Price, manager of electrical engineering at Belvac Production Machinery, Lynchburg, Va. “This saves the machine builder and the manufacturer time and money.” Belvac is an international presence in beverage canmaker systems (See Figure 1). For them, remote diagnostics clearly is an automation technology that saves labor by eliminating travel to customer sites.