After an arid 2020, when cobot revenues saw negative growth for the first time, growth is predicted to be in the 15-20% year-on-year range up to 2028, according to a report from Interact Analysis, an international research firm, focusing on intelligent automation.
The report reviews what turned out to be a difficult 2019 and a tumultuous 2020 but gives reason for optimism for the sector from now up to 2028, with significant growth predicted.
As is the case with many industries, the collaborative-robot sector was severely affected by COVID-19 in the short- and medium-term outlook.
In 2020, when more than half of collaborative robots were shipped to Asia, the market saw negative growth for the first time, -11.3% in revenue terms and -5.7% in shipment terms.
Factory and warehouse closures slowed down demand; and customers became more cautious about investment, leading to delays or even cancellations of orders. But Interact Analysis’s research indicates there will be a V-shaped rebound for the industry which will result in growth of nearly 20% in 2021, surpassing 2019 market size.
Thereafter up to 2028 there will be an annual growth rate of the order of 15-20%. The forecast has been lowered considerably compared to the equivalent 2019 report, the main reasons being, besides the COVID-19 effect, competition from small articulated and SCARA robots in industrial settings and the slower-than-expected increase in cobot installations in non-industrial applications, but, in these turbulent times, the outlook looks good for the sector.
The impact of COVID-19 on the cobot market varies from region to region, according to the report. The virus started in the Asian regions and then moved to Europe and North America. As a result, normal business operations and commissioning of automation projects in the Asia-Pacific region will resume earlier than in other regions.
This is important for the cobot market, as more than 50% of cobots were shipped to Asian countries in 2020. However, only the Chinese and, interestingly, the North American markets are forecast to surpass the size of 2019, mainly due to large domestic demand.
China has seen high take-up of cobots because the country, as the world’s largest manufacturing base, is suffering from a labor shortage and is in strong need of higher levels of automation to improve production efficiency.
By 2022 all regions are predicted to have exceeded the 2019 market size, with western Europe, along with China and North America seeing the fastest growth rates.
“Collaborative robots are still the new kid on the block,” said Jan Zhang, senior director at Interact Analysis. “Their application potential hasn’t been fully exploited yet, by any means. At present, electronics is by far the biggest end-industry employing cobots, but their potential is now being recognized across a range of sectors. Their flexibility and ease of use makes them strong candidates for logistics, services and even education applications. Our research tells us that those nonmanufacturing areas will account for 21.3% of collaborative robot revenues by 2024. Our little cobot friends are certainly set to enjoy significant growth compared to other robot types.”
To produce the report, the Interact Analysis team conducted more than 30 hours of interviews with 30 key industry personnel at robot companies and end users. These were conducted face-to-face or by phone.
